SCIENTISTS and practitioners are now able to show robust and compelling scientific projections that seem to support the possibilities of halting the detrimental effects of global emissions. However, political involvement and policy support are crucial to the issue but are still lacking.
The US, one of the highest emitters of greenhouse gases would need to hold carbon emissions under 7 billion tons or less each year. This is an ambitious goal, as even at the time of the study, the emissions were more than doubling, and projected to continue to do so, for the next 50 years.
In order to graphically illustrate the simple reduction phenomenon, 'Business as Usual (BAU)' line can be initially projected and is increasing exponentially above a flat line called the reduced trajectory, constant at 7 billion tons. On one abscissa is the amount of emissions, while on the other is the time we have in years to hold-off the increased emissions. The triangle that forms in between is the net reduction required, and is divided into smaller triangles called wedges, each of which represents an active sector such as transportation, energy, waste management, construction or agriculture -- and this is where emissions can be reduced.
There is an immediate necessity to fill these wedges in the next half-century starting now, as delaying will cause the BAU trajectory to rise, making it harder to do something in the future. This is because current wasteful business operations and incapability to put comprehensive mitigation policies to effect will cause irreparable damage.
A shift in fuel from coal-based power to renewable sources, such as wind or photovoltaic or even nuclear energy, and using our natural gas reserves is required. Reducing deforestation is imperative as plants and trees absorb huge amounts of carbon from the atmosphere. Making such radical changes in such a short time is a challenge.
We can also observe subsequent advancements in the wedge concept plan and point out what seems like flaws in the scheme by analysing the difficulty in quitting the use of high carbon emitting fossil fuel sources. Government regulations such as the planned international agreements during the Kyoto Protocol have not worked and emissions are continuously rising, while the proposed scaling up of the required technologies is moving relatively slowly.
Radical phasing out of current operations and energy sources is therefore perceived as highly unlikely from a logistical and financial standpoint as major mobilisation of energy sources and relevant infrastructure is required to achieve the wedges goals that are quantitatively identified. In other words, increased carbon emissions are not a predictive glitch within the stabilisation wedge model but are attributed to society's inability to do something about it as the outcome is dependent upon a multitude of variables and assumptions.
The BAU scenario is worse than predicted, and eighteen to twenty-five wedges will be required as opposed to the seven initial wedges. It would be extremely difficult to produce a huge amount of energy from carbon neutral sources as the world does not have enough resources to address it. Extremely expensive infrastructure mobilisation and substantial research and testing are needed to scale up the current operations.
Incentives, such as global subsidies, need to be offered so that this cycle of depleted energy with higher emissions could be decisively stopped. Revolutionary changes are needed to combat global climate change. The unpredictable emissions scenario is due to public acceptance of policies, technological innovations, fuel prices and especially cost reduction across many sectors.
Scientists agree on the underlying assumption that 1.5% annual carbon emissions growth rate could grow to 2% or even 3% by the end of the century, in which case instead of seven wedges, even more than twenty five respective wedges would be necessary, pushing the climate change solution and goals away from our reach.
Revolutionary changes in technology are not required at all. Technologies that exist today can be scaled up to meet set milestones. None of the relevant technologies are pipe-dreams or lab tests waiting to be operational, but viable and proven options that require major funding from the public sector to be scaled up.
There is enough capital in the world to finance a rapid transition to a low-carbon society with mitigated emissions and significantly clean technological systems. Although there are great challenges associated with a change, such as with the deployment and integration of renewable energy sources in the electricity sector around the world, it is still possible.

The writer is an author and former researcher at the L.P. Cookingham Urban Affairs Institute, Kansas City, MO, USA. Email: [email protected]