India has begun preparing a national forecast model to help monitor the future transmission of Covid-19 and assist governments in decision-making on readiness of the national health systems and other mitigation measures.

The Department of Science and Technology (DST) has initiated the work on the model inspired by India's history of using mathematical models for disaster management planning of metrological events, DST Secretary Ashutosh Sharma said here yesterday.

The project aims at creating one single model for the entire country that will be subject to rigorous tests required for evidence-based forecasting routinely practiced in weather forecasting communities, he said.

While the government is keeping a close watch on infectivity and mortality rate of the contagion, it is imperative to bring in a robust forecasting model for predicting the spread and enhancing disease surveillance, according to Sharma.

The Covid-19 forecasting model could be used by policymakers in India and around the world to overcome difficulties in predicting the rate of spread of infection and how it would burden the healthcare sector, thereby curbing the epidemic, he said.

Numerous mathematical models for Covid-19 forecasting and surveillance are being worked out by investigators funded by DST-SERB (Science and Engineering Research Board) and other agencies.

The model will entirely rely only on the data that is relevant to Covid-19 and also have an adaptive built-in component to learn from the newer trends in the data, Sharma said.

"It will aggregate successful evidence-based mathematical and statistical forecasting models and include the best predictive analytics for robust forecasting of infectious disease spread," he said.

As part of this initiative, Jawaharlal Nehru Centre for Advanced Scientific Research (JNCASR) and Indian Institute of Sciences in Bangalore will co-ordinate to work with all Covid-19 modelling projects and programmes in the country.

"This will help develop a set of benchmarks to assess various models and to finally deliver the Covid-19 India national supermodel," Sharma said.

"Mathematical modelling and simulations for the spread of Covid-19 virus and its impact are not mere academic exercises but are critical needs for rational decision-making, planning and resource management," the DST Secretary said and hence the importance of a robust national model vetted by a large cross-section of scientific community working in the area is developed."