Bangladesh's power sector is burdened by overcapacity and systemic inefficiencies, hindering its ability to deliver reliable and cost-effective electricity, says Prof Dr Saifur Rahman, a Bangladeshi expert based in the US.

With a grid system weakened by past neglect and a lack of skilled manpower, the country faces significant challenges in optimising its power generation and distribution, according to Saifur, founding director of the Advanced Research Institute at Virginia Tech University.

In an exclusive interview with The Daily Star, he said power distribution and transmission did not get the same attention as generation did in Bangladesh.

As a result, power generation capacity exceeds demand by 40 percent, far beyond the optimal 8-10 percent.

Additionally, a shortage of skilled manpower has led to poor planning and higher costs.

Saifur made three recommendations to improve the power sector: reducing demand by improving energy efficiency, increasing solar power installation as much as possible, and looking at the opportunities for cross-border power transfer.

Speaking about distribution issues, he said having a capacity beyond the demand is useless without stronger transmission and distribution.

Most power cuts happen here due to distribution issues as voltage and frequency fluctuate a lot, he added.

The electricity coming from India through Bheramara is also more expensive because Bangladesh's power network is weak, which increases costs. A $500 million high-voltage direct current (HVDC) was installed for Indian power imports, though strengthening the local grid with flexible AC transmission systems (FACTS) could have been a more cost-effective solution, Saifur said.

"Our grid system is incompatible with India's, causing higher costs. Additionally, we need to upgrade our grid to be able to handle more renewable energy."

About the Integrated Energy and Power Master Plan-2023, he said the country lacks short-term goals.

"We don't have clear targets for what we'll do in 2030, 2035, or 2040. It's unclear what the alternatives will be if fuel costs spike. We need a realistic plan for such situations.

"Some parts of our national energy plan are unrealistic, like using hydrogen as an alternative fuel. This is very expensive. Even the US is struggling with hydrogen fuel. How will we manage it? Without a market for hydrogen, it's impractical. Hydrogen import is also costly. The idea of a hydrogen hub in the plan is not viable since there is no demand for the fuel domestically or internationally."

Saifur said reducing demand by improving power plants' efficiency and increasing the use of energy-saving products should be the top priority of Bangladesh. "We can increase the use of solar power and small nuclear plants, and we can look for cross-border power transfer.

"Since we have limited resources, we can import electricity from Nepal, Bhutan, and India. China also has significant hydro potential in Kunming, and they sell power to Vietnam. There was an offer for a Kunming-Myanmar-Bangladesh electricity link, but that didn't happen."

He added that such transfer of electricity has some challenges, like a halt to power supply by the exporter. "There can be some UN treaties to prevent countries from cutting off power supplies without the consent of the recipient country."

As nuclear energy is a lengthy and expensive way to meet the demand, the country could use small modular reactors (SMRs), a type of small nuclear power plant with a capacity from 50 to 120 MW, the expert said. 

These are easy to install and less risky and do not waste huge amounts of water, according to him. "China, the US, Argentina, Russia, and South Korea are already using SMRs. We could collaborate with these countries."

Saifur thinks the rise in Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant's cost to cross $12 billion was supposed to happen. "In the US, nuclear plants often cost 2-2.5 times more than initially estimated. Equipment costs rise, and there are inspections, testing, and time delays."

The plant has 230kV and 132kV lines, but the 400kV line is still not ready. The Power Grid Bangladesh PLC says the existing lines can handle 1,200MW of power, but the Russians disagree.

They have said they need gas-based backup, but Bangladesh cannot afford to keep 1,200MW of gas-powered backup running, according to Saifur.

"There's also the issue of where to use the electricity from Rooppur. Will it be transmitted to Dhaka or used elsewhere? This highlights the importance of having skilled manpower who can anticipate such costs and plan accordingly."

About the nuclear waste management of Rooppur, Saifur said there was no investment plan on how the waste will be disposed of.

Uranium fuel rods that heat water to produce steam for generating electricity need to be replaced every 18 months. After being used up, the rods remain hot for a while. In the US, these spent rods are stored in swimming pools for at least two years to cool down before being transported for long-term storage, he said.

He added that Bangladesh plans to send nuclear waste to Russia, but there's no clarity on interim storage and transportation costs.

Saifur, a lifetime fellow of the US Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), said that at least 30 percent of the total power mix of Bangladesh should come from renewable sources.

However, installing coal-based power plants despite the need to cut such sources for environmental reasons was a necessary step, he added.

"We needed power, and without coal, we would have faced serious shortages. We don't have hydro or enough gas, so coal was the only viable option. We can consider more nuclear power plants, but that will take another 10 years. This served as an intermediate solution to meet energy needs.

"As for carbon emissions, Bangladesh's emissions are negligible compared to larger countries, so we have the moral right to use coal," said Saifur, who led the IEEE delegation as its president at the COP-27 climate summit in 2023.

About coal-fired plants, he said raising their efficiency from 40 percent to 44 percent could cut coal use by 10 percent. To increase the efficiency of these plants, Bangladesh could use financing from the $100 billion loss and damage fund under the UN.

Saifur believes Bangladesh's engineers should join international training programmes and global conferences. Engineers from countries like India, Nepal, Malaysia, and Myanmar gathered in Singapore last year for the Conference of the Electric Power Supply Industry, but Bangladesh had no representation.

"The best way to improve skills is by building connections with neighbouring countries and like-minded nations. We should have more interactions with Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore, Japan, South Africa, and the Middle East."

Besides, the Power Management Institute should prioritise training by foreign experts over bureaucratic concerns, he said. "That doesn't happen here. Our bureaucracy is focused on administrative matters like the benefits, cars, drivers and peons, rather than the core issues."