ON February 18, Pakistan held its National Assembly and Provincial Assemblies' elections, in which President Parvez Musharraf's party Pakistan Muslim League (Q) suffered a humiliating defeat. It has secured only 55 seats in the National Assembly while it has no lead in any province except Balochistan, where the nationalist parties boycotted elections.
The overall outcome of the elections has not been surprising. The analysts had forecasted the victory of Pakistan People's Party (PPP) if the elections were free and fair and, according to most observers, elections have been free and fair. The elections results also indicate the same, otherwise Musharraf's PML(Q) would not have suffered such a humiliating defeat.
However, Pakistan now has ended up with a hung Parliament, with PPP having 113, PML (N) 84, PML(Q) 55, MQM 25 ANP(secular Pasthuns) 14 and others 38 seats, and a coalition government, by PPP and PML(N), is in the offing. The people of Pakistan are now expecting that a smooth transition from an authoritarian government to a democratic one will be a matter of time only. How bright are the chances of democratic consolidation in Pakistan? What are the complexities that may create hindrances to a smooth transition?
From the current scenario, it is gauged that there are a number of difficulties that need to be overcome for creating a stable environment in which democracy can thrive. First, the controversy surrounding the president's office, as well as the president himself.
In October 2007, Musharraff got himself elected as president for another five years. But the opposition wants him to resign so that they can have their own man instead. Musharraff has already turned it down. But how long he can retain his position is a matter of speculation.
The fact is of the matter is that he is still the most powerful man in the country. This is due to the fact that the constitution of Pakistan gives him the power to dissolve the parliament without consulting any constitutional bodies or individuals.
The people of Pakistan know how draconian this power is. It is still fresh in the memory how past presidents like Khan and Legari, who together dismissed as many as three elected governments, used this power.
Many have compared the Pakistani president's power to dissolve the parliament with that of the French president, who also has similar power. But, in reality, the French president does not have such absolute power, and needs to consult the chairmen of a number of constitutional bodies before making a decision to dissolve the people's representative body.
Moreover, unlike the Pakistan president, he is directly elected for a term of five years and, as a directly elected president, it is not unusual for him to have such constitutional power.
As such, the indirectly elected president's absolute power to dissolve the parliament as long as he has the backing of the army is not same as the French president's, and is certainly not compatible with a democratic order. The leader of PML(N) Nawaz Sharif has already threatened to clip Musharraf's power.
It is to be pointed out here that such an undemocratic feature was incorporated into the constitution by General Ziaul Haque in order to retain the army's hold over the representative body.
But PML(N)'s intention to introduce a genuine parliamentary system of government may run into a number of snags: the coalition government may not have two-third majority in the Parliament, which is needed for constitutional amendment; and it may create adverse reaction within the army, which still remains a major player in Pakistan's politics.
In this context, most ominous has been Nawaz Sharif's threats that he would join hands with the PPP and reach a quid pro quo arrangement with regard to the offices of prime minister and president, so that Musharraf can be either ousted or impeached. Most analysts, however, agree that such a scenario would be highly disturbing if Musharraf himself does not resigns as per the verdict of the people. Under the circumstances, the possibility of a snap election cannot be ruled out.
Secondly, against the backdrop of an all-powerful president and a parliament controlled by his foes, the functioning of the government will be fraught with difficulties. We may again cite the French system (although it is different from Pakistan's system, it is ostensibly similar), in which the president is sometimes forced to work with a National Assembly controlled and dominated by his opponents.
President Musharraf has already declared that he was ready to work with any party that forms the government, but only the future can tell whether or not such cooperation would be possible between Musharraf and his foes.
Thirdly, there are difficulties in the formation and functioning of a coalition government. The fact is that people who are imbued with a democratic political culture can successfully build a coalition and work with it. Unfortunately, that kind of culture is missing in Pakistan, and how long yesterday's foes like PML(N) and PPP can work together is yet to be seen.
Fourthly, it is a matter of concern that nationalist parties in Balochistan have shied away from electioneering. This fact demonstrates their total alienation from the system itself. Pakistani leaders need to pay proper attention to their genuine grievances, otherwise the democratic order may face serious challenges from the nationalist forces. Moreover, the rising militancy of the Islamic radicals will remain as a thorn in the side of the democratic order if the leaders remain busy with power sharing and the like.
Lastly, it is well known that democracy cannot flourish in the absence of democratic institutions. But most of the democratic institutions in Pakistan, due to long army rule, are in a disarray. The recent onslaught on the country's Supreme Court by President Musharraf is, in particular, a case in point.
It should be kept in mind that building democratic institutions takes both time and nurturing. But, this time, if such commitments from the leader are not forthcoming then the nascent democratic order may be in jeopardy.
From the discussion above, it is evident that there remain a lot of impediments in the transition to democracy from authoritarian rule in Pakistan. But there a number of positive developments as well that may help the country to deal with the difficult times that lie ahead.
First, it is indeed commendable that a free, fair and violence free election has been held in Pakistan. Elections in which people can freely express their voice are the cornerstone of any democracy. By all standards, that cornerstone has been laid in Pakistan.
Musharraf's, and his party's, quick acceptance of the elections results is also very much a right step in the right direction. Most importantly, it is heartening to note that for the first time in Pakistan's history, the army remained totally neutral during the elections and has openly declared that it will not get involved in the country's politics. Secondly, the elections and the election result indicate that the people of Pakistan will not settle for anything short of democracy.
The commitment to work for democracy by the emergent vibrant civil society in Pakistan has added new dimensions to the people's aspirations. Hope is aroused when one finds that the media are playing their designated role. These are all hopeful signs. Even then, all these developments may not be enough for the consolidation of democracy.
On top of everything, there is an urgent need for mature leadership, which would rise above self-aggrandisement and narrow self-interest in order to reap the fruits of the elections.
All political parties and the leaders must realise that there must not be any confrontational approach. They must realise that confrontations and bitter animosity bring destruction not only to the leaders but to the country as well. The onus, thus, lies heavily on the newly elected leaders of Pakistan, including General Pervez Musharraf, who must allow the assembly to work without hindrance as a sovereign body representing the hopes and aspirations of the Pakistani people.
In conclusion, one hopes for a peaceful ushering in of democratic rule in Pakistan, otherwise the country faces the dangers of more militancy by Islamic radicals, who will not settle for anything less than total Talebanisation of the country, and succumbing to the forces of separatistism, especially in Balochistan. Pakistan, indeed, is now at a historical juncture.

Dilara Choudhury is Professor, Department of Government and Politics, Jahangirnagar University.