Bahadur Shah Zafar, the last Moghul emperor was not the sovereign of India. He ruled only over the Red Fort in Delhi. But he was a consummate Urdu poet. In one of his ramblings, he wrote a ghazal, when translated reads: "I asked for a long life/ I received four days/ Two passed in desire, two in waiting."
Thus when Zafar was indicted by the British, as the inspiration behind the 1857 Sepoy Mutiny, he was sent on exile to Myanmar (then known as Burma). They felt that Myanmar was so remote from Delhi that by exiling the Emperor they would finally bury the name and fame of the Great Moghuls. Yet little did they know that this would not happen and Zafar's poignant ghazal would play for India for years to come. In any case the British action then did not amuse the Myanmarese.
Nor were the Myanmarese amused when they discovered that thousands of Indians from the sub-continent had quietly come to settle in their land. These people came to do business, to work as indentured labour, to be government clerks as well as be proxies for the British. There was resentment when Indian officers and staff functioned as tools of the British colonial power.
But in the 1940's things started to improve when both India and Burma became independent. Prime Ministers U Nu and Jawaharlal Nehru were personal friends as well as prominent figures in the Non-aligned Movement. India gave military and economic aid to U Nu's government. So the seeds of desire for closer Indo-Myanmarese ties were sown in those heady days. Zafar's couplet was being somewhat vindicated.
However, in 1962, a military coup took place in Myanmar, when General Ne Win took power. The Revolutionary Council nationalised all private businesses, of which 60% were owned by people of Indian origin. So in the next four years, from 1964 to 1968, more than 150,000 Indo-Myanmarese fled Myanmar. The warm relations suddenly became cold.
Two of Myanmar's big neighbours, India and China, were however quite aware about the country's strategic significance. They knew that it was a bridge between South and South East Asia. It also had long borders with each of them. So Burma made deep geo-political sense to them. When the army under Ne Win took over, India pushed hard to restore democracy there. But this alienated Myanmar's military government. It threw its lot with China, which was then a "source of low interest loans, grants, development projects, technical assistance, etc." India was thus sidelined and China became Myanmar's principal friend.
But then India fell into a quandary. It had to do something in order to get back into Myanmar's favour. It needed that country's cooperation to stymie the insurgent groups that were creating trouble in its backyard and were taking refuge in Myanmar. So India contemplated reversing its policy. It felt it needed to befriend the military regime. India also knew that Myanmar had a surfeit of natural gas. So by coming close it could access some of this gas for its industrial development.
In the 1990's, during the watch of Prime Minister Narisimha Rao, India concluded that Myanmar's democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, in spite of her charismatic personality, was not making any progress in re-establishing democracy. India also realised that the military regime would not give up power easily. So it stopped basing its foreign policy there on high moral grounds and decided to accrue advantages from Myanmar.
Three major reasons prompted India to then distance itself from Aung San Suu Kyi and woo the generals. First was the need to access Myanmar's huge hydrocarbon energy sources. Second was to fulfill India's dream of building transport corridors from her landlocked north east states through Burma to the Bay of Bengal. India also wanted to connect the Indian city of Imphal to Yangoon in Myanmar and onwards to Bangkok in Thailand. The third reason was to checkmate China in the Bay of Bengal and deny it any strategic advantage there. Democratic India therefore embraced an autocratic Myanmar.
But in 2010, the game changed again inside Myanmar. The military regime that had ruled for over four decades decided to hold elections and ease their vise-like grip on the country. They released most political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi. She and her political party were allowed to contest in bye-elections and got enough seats to be the main opposition party. The international community now recalled India's role as a "turncoat" against democracy and thought, as in Zafar's poem, that it would have to wait forever for things to return in its favour.
But India this time moved at lightening speed. It invited the reform minded Myanmar's President U Thein Sein to visit Delhi. This was followed by several trade and economic cooperation delegations visiting each other's capitals. But last week, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh himself visited Myanmar. A new era seemed to have dawned in India-Myanmar relations.
Twelve agreements and protocols were signed and a joint statement was issued at the end of this historic visit. India also gave a $500 million credit line to Myanmar. Manmohan also flew to Yangon to meet democracy icon Suu Kyi for 45 minutes and to assure her of India's support to her democracy movement. It may be recalled that in the 1960's Suu Kyi was a student in Delhi, when her mother was Myanmarese ambassador to India. So at a personal level Suu Kyi has attachment for that country.
So will this fresh Indian embrace of Myanmar affect Bangladesh, another of Myanmar's neighbours? First, India wants to ensure that it does not lose out in trade and investment opportunities that are opening up in that country. To some extent this may mean that Myanmar may have less interest in trading with us unless we diversify our exports. Second, India's dream of building a transport corridor bypassing Bangladesh is now likely to be fulfilled.
Take the case of the Kaladan Multi-modal Transit-cum-Transport Project on the river Kaladan which India is implementing in Myanmar. This river meanders from Myanmar to Mizoram in India and then re-enters Myanmar to empty into the Bay of Bengal near the port of Sittwe (Akyab). India is investing heavily in that port and access roads to get to Myanmar's forest wealth. India wants to develop sea lanes running from Sittwe to Kolkata and Visakhapatnam. It also wants Sittwe to be a major oil and gas distribution centre for India's north eastern states.
Myanmar's President U Thein Sein is likely to visit Bangladesh next month. In order to catch up we must quickly complete the formalities that will establish a smooth payment system to enable bilateral trade. Only then can we press for more trade and investment opportunities. We must also expeditiously establish air, sea and road links with Myanmar.
But between India and Myanmar, things may not work out as predicted. At the ground level, the game could be played differently. Myanmar now knows that it has the upper hand. All its big neighbours, and far off USA, are wooing it. Like an attractive maiden itcan opt to be choosy and tempestuous.
Emperor Zafar's words could yet ring true. India may be kept waiting longer that what it had bargained for, before it is able to take advantage of improved relations. The twisting tale could twist still further.

The writer is a former Ambassador and a commentator on contemporary issues. E-Mail: [email protected]