Weaker Donald Trump will struggle to keep promises

Donald Trump can still cut deals and issue orders. But the US president's power has waned since he imposed sky-high tariffs in April, only to backtrack. In particular, the balance of power between the United States and China, which should be critical to his promise to "Make America Great Again", has shifted in Beijing's favour.

Trump deploys his power in three main ways. The first is by giving commands. He spews out executive orders and makes pronouncements on social media, expecting people to snap to attention. The second is as a card-player. As he told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in their infamous meeting in the White House in February: "you don't have the cards right now". The president often seems to think he can cut good deals because he holds the best hand. The third is by taunting opponents. That was the approach Trump took with former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, mocking him as the country's "governor".

At the apogee of Trump's power, he faced little opposition. A blizzard of activity, combined with the fact that his Republican Party controls both houses of Congress, gave the impression that his second administration would be all-conquering. There was little point for opponents in resisting either the president or key lieutenants such as Elon Musk, the world's richest man who was given the job of slashing government spending.

The opposition Democratic Party was in disarray. Critics in the Republican Party and business kept quiet for fear that Trump would turn on them. Targets such as Columbia University and law firm Paul Weiss made concessions in an attempt to persuade him to back off.

One of Trump's sources of power is the perception that he is a winner. His trip to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates last week, when he announced deals worth more than $1 trillion, burnished these credentials. His personal relationships with Gulf leaders also underlined his charisma - another source of his power.

In recent weeks, however, Trump has also given the impression that he will back off when faced with signs of trouble. He delayed bespoke tariffs on trading partners after financial markets tumbled, suggesting a low threshold for economic pain. He struck a more emollient tone towards Canada after new Prime Minister Mark Carney hit back with tariffs and tough rhetoric.

The most important retreat, however, was last week's decision to slash US tariffs on Chinese imports for at least 90 days without any significant concessions from Beijing. Trump may have feared that an enduring standoff could fuel stagflation. The US ceasefire with Houthis also suggests a less belligerent approach. Although the Yemeni fighters agreed to stop attacking US ships in the Red Sea, they continued to launch missiles at Israel, one of Washington's closest allies.

In all these cases, Trump seems to have overestimated his hand and underestimated the cards held by his opponents. Others may draw the lesson that he does not have the stomach for long fights. The president is also facing more resistance at home. Harvard University and some law firms have stood up to him. Opponents have won a series of legal cases against his administration's actions. Meanwhile, Musk's chainsaw approach to government and Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s handling of a measles outbreak are unpopular. Although Trump's overall popularity ratings have recently risen after an initial drop, Republicans will need public support to keep control of Congress after next year's midterm elections. Without that, the president's power will further erode.

Republicans in Congress are also finding their voice. Several senators, including the Republican Senate Majority Leader John Thune, have questioned Trump's desire to accept a $400 million airplane from Qatar. Many are backing tougher sanctions against Russia, making it harder for the president to swing back to supporting the Kremlin. Meanwhile, Trump is about to face a big test of his power as he tries to get the divided Republican Party in Congress to back massive tax cuts.

Even some of Trump's successes may not be quite as good as they look. For example, while he got the United Kingdom to agree to a one-sided trade pact, this will boost export opportunities for US companies by only $5 billion, according to the administration - a mere 0.02 percent of US national output.

Meanwhile, a deal to help the UAE build a massive artificial intelligence campus has raised concerns from some in the US government that the advanced chips might find their way to China. Moreover, commitments to invest do not necessarily translate into actual investments, says Simon Evenett, professor of geopolitics and strategy at IMD.

The US president's success in getting European allies such as Germany to ramp up defence spending could also have a sting in the tail. While his threat to stop supporting countries that spend too little on defence could cut the burden on US taxpayers, Trump has shattered the trust of American allies. Europe will try to become less dependent on Washington as it boosts its own defences. That could ultimately weaken the United States in its superpower rivalry with China, as it probably needs allies to prevail.

One problem with Trump's dominant modes for exercising power is that they look at the world through the prism of winners and losers. Such zero-sum thinking is only one way of deploying power, says Steven Lukes, a political scientist who has studied power.

Trump could, of course, adopt more of a win-win approach, which would focus on identifying mutually advantageous relationships with allies. This is what his predecessor Joe Biden was trying to do as part of his strategy for containing China.

But that would require the 78-year-old to learn new ways of deploying power. Maybe he can do this. But, if not, MAGA risks becoming "Make America Weak Again".