He will have to have the nerves to withstand too many things -- electoral, social, economic and, of course, donor pressures; this is going to be his first budget under the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper.

It will also be an unquiet time for analysts to watch whether Saifur will actually give up prudence in favour of political expediency. Indications are there that he will compromise to some extent, to prove once again that economic consolidations in the first years of a government are squandered away in the end year.

On the economic front, Saifur will have a lot of comforts to dance with -- a good export performance, strong industrial and agriculture outputs, below-the-limit budget deficit, low borrowing from the banks and strong foreign exchange reserves.

Yet, he will have plenty to worry about, if a finance minister's outlook has to be beyond the political tenure -- a nagging inflationary pressure, the paradox of an agile investment demand that leads to pressure on the balance of payment (BoP) situation, poor implementation of the Annual Development Programme (ADP) that undermines the country's growth potentials and straining revenue situation.

Revenue is one area where the government still has to worry about. During the July-April period of FY05, NBR revenue showed a moderate growth of 13.5 percent, achieving 71.34 percent of the annual target, whereas the matching figure was 72.91 percent in the previous fiscal year. This shows that it is unlikely that the NBR revenue target would be met at the end of the year.

Non-NBR revenue collection is also not very encouraging with a marginal growth. Though the realised figure for July-February is 4.69 percent higher than its benchmark figure of FY04, it is much lower than the comparable growth performance of FY04 (20.71 percent).

Low domestic resource mobilisation following the floods of 2004 is also leading the economy to an increased budget deficit in FY05. The share of bank borrowing in total deficit financing has increased from 5.3 percent during the first eight months of FY04 to 15.4 percent during the same period of FY05. On the other hand, the share of non-bank borrowing has reduced from 77.8 percent in FY04 to 35.2 percent in FY05, as savings instruments became unattractive.

Inflation has become a major concern as it peaked on a point-to-point basis from 5.65 percent from the start of the fiscal year to 6.72 percent in March, which makes monetary management even trickier. The central bank has been grappling with the inflation- associated pressures, often rubbed with power play, such as interest rate management and exchange rate.

Export earnings for the July-March period have been showing a encouraging 12.5 percent growth, but that offers little comfort, as the real test for the readymade garments, fetching around 80 percent of the export earnings, will face a real challenge this year. This is even more pertinent as RMG export for the first time in a decade failed to achieve a double-digit growth rate and ended with a 9.5 percent increase.

But the increments in exports were dwarfed by a faster increase in imports, which is 25.1 percent higher than the matching period (July-February) of the previous fiscal year. The major contribution of this growth came from petroleum product payments other than capital goods, textiles, food and fertiliser. Now it is feared that if this trend continues, it would build up an alarming pressure on the balance of payment situation in the next fiscal year.

And Saifur has to think of the famous cycle of BOP tension translating into fiscal tension. With increased investment leading to pick-up in imports, it will put foreign exchange under pressure and the BoP will be strained. If Saifur wants to ease up the situation with foreign loan, this will lead to increased debt service liability with the ultimate pressure on the fiscal situation. But what else can he do unless new tax reforms bring in more money?

If all these economic pressures are something Saifur can sustain, the political pressures will be too pesky to tackle, and as the domino effect goes, this can squish the economic front.

Saifur has to play politician this time in allocating funds and committing to reforms. Already demands from his coalition's lawmakers are high -- the least being demands for allocation of Tk 1 crore to each constituency. The lawmakers will need show-off projects with unaccountable use of revenues and that has been reflected in the spending spree in the rural infrastructure and development projects in the revised ADP. The next year's ADP also finds the highest increase in local government ministry and a more than 75 percent increase in Block Allocation. Tax amnesty for undeclared income is set to remain, albeit in a curtailed form.

And Saifur has to toe the IMF line after getting into the poverty reduction and growth facility programme. Not only that, he has to go by the conditions of the Development Support Credit. He has to strengthen the income tax LTU and catch tax-dodgers, a tricky task in a politically divisive society. Expansion of the VAT net to more services and a significant exemption in tax are also politically diametrical decisions he has to make. The NBR reforms also can spark bad political publicity, but Saifur has to work to bring Agrani and Janata banks to the point of divestment.

But one needs to wait if Saifur really acts to stem the social pressures that have manifested over the last few years. The inequality between the rich and the poor has widened markedly -- the wealth of the rich grew at a much faster rate that the poor -- raising serious doubts over the government's claims of pro-poor budget formulation for years. In the streets, this juxtaposition is even starker with the growing number of swanky cars, restaurants and shopping malls contrasted by a speedier growth of slums. The regional wealth disparity is even starker, which needs deeper political commitment of devolution of power, something that has always remained a cry in the woods.

Saifur today does not have many roads to choose. He can think it is the last year and so go for a political spin, or he may think of a bigger picture where economy comes first and where good investment and policy can spur equitable growth.