Finally, the larger number of United Kingdom's (UK) citizens have decided to leave the European Union. Thanks to Bangladesh's historical, political, trade and social links with the UK, and taking into account the people of Bangladeshi origin living there as residents or citizens, the referendum on Brexit has generated huge interest in our country.

The history of the European integration and the UK's reticence about it began in the fifties, after WWII. Although the first European community – the Coal and Steel Community of 1952—was never meant to be a Franco-German scheme, UK's entry had not been easy. The UK joined the community in 1973, being an applicant in 1961.  France, under General de Gaulle, blocked the accession negotiations in 1963, presumably because of a deep mistrust of the UK's intentions. The second application in 1967 also failed to make any headway, and a breakthrough came only after de Gaulle stepped down in 1969.But the UK's journey towards European integration, since 1973, has also not been without reservations.The UK didn't join the single currency, the Euro, when it was introduced in 2002; it was in the Single Market introduced in 1993 with free movement of goods, capital and services and also with European Economic and Monetary Union in 1999, with the option to get out of it.

Like the rest of the world, the Bangladesh media is also giving a lot of coverage to UK's exit from the EU. However, how many in Bangladesh were even aware that the UK was in the EU? I have witnessed, a few times, questions asked to the ambassador of the EU in Dhaka by a few journalists, as well as university students, regarding the 'possibility of the UK joining the EU'. Nevertheless, Brexit is really an important issue for Bangladesh. Let us take the issue of export – the important concern in EU-Bangladesh relations. For the last several years, more than half of Bangladesh's total exports have gone to the EU. In 2015, Bangladesh exported goods worth more than 15 billion euro, and out of this UK's share was about 20 percent. Interestingly, about 90 percent of Bangladesh's total export to the EU is composed of readymade garments (RMG), and UK's share is again 20 percent of the RMG exported to the EU. Although smaller in value compared to RMG, 70 percent of the agricultural export and about 50 percent export of bicycles to the EU are destined for UK. We can't forget that Bangladesh's export to the EU enjoys not only duty-free access, but also very relaxed rules of origin. Under relaxed rules of origin of GSP for Least Developed Countries (LDCs), Bangladesh is allowed to bring more imported input for its exportable items to be eligible for duty-free entry in the EU market. This preferential access is owing to the EU's GSP scheme (LDC) for Least Developed Countries, popularly known as Everything But Arms (EBA). Will it be business as usual when the UK leaves, albeit in about  two years to complete the exit process?

The EU-Bangladesh relation is formally structured through a Cooperation Agreement signed in 2001, which replaced the Commercial Cooperation Agreement signed in 1976. This Agreement is the main legal instrument governing several facets of the relationship. The EU-Bangladesh Joint Commission, set up under the Cooperation Agreement, regularly interacts on broad issues of trade, economic cooperation, development, human rights and good governance. The absence of UK from the structural dialogue with the EU, under the Joint Commission, will create new challenges for Bangladesh. Of course, the UK-Bangladesh bilateral structure can adjust to the new situation, but Bangladesh will miss the 'one stop service'.

Since the establishment of the European Economic Community (EEC) in 1957, trade has been the exclusive community competence, and investment was added to that competence in 2009, following the Lisbon Treaty. In simple terms, how much an importer in the UK will pay in customs duty for a shirt imported from Bangladesh was, up until now, determined by the EU as the only competent authority. After leaving the EU, this will be decided independently by the UK. The European Commission represents all of the member states of the EU at the World Trade Organization (WTO). Therefore, Bangladesh negotiates only with the EU on different WTO issues. WTO Hong Kong Ministerial in 2005 decided to provide 97 percent of LDC exports duty-free access into the markets of developed countries, and that decision has not been implemented yet. Bangladesh falls within the LDC category. However, the EU had unilaterally given duty-free access for 100 percent of the LDC products, except arms and ammunition, through its GSP scheme since 2001. Even before that, Bangladesh has been enjoying duty-free access for all its exportable products for more than three decades, including in the UK market. The departure of UK from the EU will create new conditions for Bangladesh, as it will have to negotiate bilaterally for the best possible market access or hope that the UK will unilaterally maintain its commitment made during its tenure with the EU.

Let us now get in to the more difficult part of our trade relations. Will the UK citizens be able to get the famous Black Tiger shrimps for their dinner at an affordable price? Can Bangladeshi origin families living in the UK eat Bangladeshi vegetables like before? These will depend on the standards and certification system that UK will follow. Presently, all 28 member states of the EU adhere to common EU standards. Exporters of fisheries and agro-products are regulated by the Food and Veterinary rules set by the EU. UK standards are now in tune with those rules. Problems related to health standards of import of such items have been dealt by the EU in the past. The UK, facing occasional problems with import from Bangladesh, had to go through a process where a final decision on continuing the import or placing a restriction order on certain products were decided at the EU level. Bangladesh will definitely miss the advantage of the Single Market, where one bulk importer in the Netherlands could distribute Bangladeshi products to UK without any barrier. Hopefully, UK will renegotiate its trade laws with the EU to let that happen. Switzerland' bilateral agreement with the EU and Norway's under European Economic Area (EEA) arrangement provides the same market access for import originating from Bangladesh, which it enjoys in the EU under GSP.

Coming back to the original question – should we be worried following the Brexit? It is too early to say anything conclusive, particularly on trade and investment relations. There are many issues on which Bangladesh has been dealing with the EU. Bangladesh needs to look deep into these issues and try to get best out of the UK through intense negotiations. I believe that the onus is on the EU and UK to quickly adjust to their new relationship within the next two years.

The writer is the former Trade Advisor to the Delegation of the European Union in Bangladesh. He can be contacted at: [email protected].