Rice prices have started creeping up again, spurred by increased import costs and speculations that the ongoing Aman harvesting period was witnessing a reduction in yield, according to traders and millers.

Coarse grain sold at Tk 44-46 per kilogramme at city retail markets yesterday, up from Tk 42-46 a week ago. 

Prices of fine and medium varieties also edged up, the former trading at Tk 58-68 yesterday from Tk 58-66 a week ago, according to the Trading Corporation of Bangladesh data.

Abdul Matin, a rice trader at Mohammadpur Krishi Market, said wholesale prices rose by one taka in recent days. “We have come to know from millers that there has been a shortage of production of paddy this year,” he said.

The Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE) said paddy cultivation area rose 3.4 percent year-on-year to 57.74 lakh hectares during Aman season, exceeding its initial target of 56 lakh hectares this year.

The DEA targeted cultivating 1.40 crore tonnes of rice in the Aman season this year. The monsoon-based crop accounted for 40 percent of the 3.38 crore tonnes of rice produced in fiscal 2016-17, according to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.

However, some rice millers said the yield of Aman would decline as cultivation of the second biggest rice crop was delayed for recurrent floods which affected seedlings and plantations in their primary stages in vast areas of the north, particularly in August.

Later, heavy rainfall, triggered by a land depression in late October, affected paddy on the fields in many growing regions.

“Rainfall and wind at that time damaged paddy, affecting grain formation of the rice plants that were cultivated late owing to floods,” said Nirod Boron Saha, a rice and paddy wholesaler and miller in Naogaon, one of the north's major wholesale centres.

“There is a price in terms of yield for late plantation,” he said, adding that many farmers also opted for producing aromatic rice after the floods.

“These factors have had an impact on overall production. It appears that there is a deficit in production,” he said, citing high prices of paddy against low supply in local bazaars.

Saha said, “Paddy prices were very high as farmers were releasing their produce slowly.”

KM Layek Ali, general secretary of Bangladesh Auto, Major and Husking Mills Association, said farmers usually retain Aman paddy for a longer period of time and release it gradually.

“Supply from growers will increase as many of them will sell their produce to cultivate Boro rice and buy production inputs such as fertilisers and pesticides,” he said.

A 40-kg sack of Guti Swarna paddy, a coarse grain variety, sold for Tk 960-1,000 at growers' level yesterday, said Refayet Ullah, a farmer from Pirgachha in the northern district of Rangpur.

“Overall yields are less this Aman season compared to a year ago. This is a common case in my area,” he said blaming floods that affected plantations in their primary stage in August.

“We would have bagged a good amount of crops if we had been able to plant the crop timely,” he said. A rice miller seeking to remain unnamed said reports of higher yields were provided to headquarters from field level agricultural offices. 

“In reality, the situation is not such,” he said, adding that the overall output might decline in the current Aman season from what was a year ago. The market of the staple food started rising after declining from the third week of November, to continue until the end of the first week of this month.

Saha said cost of rice imports has increased owing to weakening of the local currency taka against the US dollar. On the other hand, Indian rupee appreciated against the greenback, leading to a further spiral in import costs, he said.

“We have to buy dollar at about Tk 83 each. The same was available at around Tk 80 one and half months ago,” he said.

On December 13, the greenback traded at Tk 82.60 each, up from Tk 80.90 on the first day of November, according to the Bangladesh Bank data.

Saha said prices of the staple may edge up in the coming months. A decline in prices depends on a bumper Boro harvest.

“So far, the weather looks favourable. Agricultural extension officials should stay close to growers and provide advice to ensure a good crop,” he said.