Meanwhile, some remarks of El Baradei have already ruffled feathers in Washington and Europe. At a press conference in Luxemburg on May 24, El Baradei said that he agreed with the CIA assessment that Iran is 3 to 8 years away from a nuclear weapon. Iran was capable of producing 3.5 percent to 5 percent enriched uranium. To produce a weapon it would require technology, which can produce 90 percent and above enriched uranium.

He also said that "comprehensive dialogue" is the only way to keep Iran out of nuclear arms. Baradei said that Iran has expanded its enrichment program and that IAEA's knowledge of Iran's activities was shrinking. France and US have reacted strongly and said that these comments of El Baradei will undermine UNSC efforts to reign in Iran.

Iran is a signatory of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (came into force in March 1990), which is based on three main principles -- first, that none of the five Nuclear Weapon States (NWS) nor any non-NWS state shall proliferate nuclear weapons; second, that all signatory states shall adhere to disarmament and liquidate all nuclear weapons (some day); and third, states may use nuclear technology for peaceful purposes only. The question then arises -- where has Iran gone wrong? Why are the Western powers threatening Iran with all kinds of consequences?

Iran's nuclear program started under the Shah with American technology. The Germans built the Bushehr plant in the 1970s. Trouble started when Iran smuggled in centrifuges from Pakistan. It is not the principles of NPT that Iran has violated. Iran is very much within its rights to use nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, and President Ahmedinejad has repeatedly reiterated this. Not reporting the enrichment program, which is required under the Additional Protocol of IAEA, was the violation.

The West saw this as a clandestine attempt by Iran to develop nuclear weapons. There is a weakness in the NPT. A state can develop technology for peaceful purposes, but can at the same time surreptitiously divert the enriched nuclear fuel for making weapons. In order to check clandestine use of enriched nuclear fuel, the IAEA can insist on tighter inspection regimes, including surprise visits to nuclear sites. This inspection on safeguard measures is known as the Additional Protocol.

Iran had signed the Additional Protocol under pressure from US, UK and France. IAEA says Iran has not been co-operating on the safeguard measures. The US has raised an uproar that Iran is up to something covert. Iran claims it has been complying with all IAEA safeguards. Discontented the US sponsored three Security Council Resolutions, two of which have imposed limited sanctions:

• Resolution 1696 (July 2006) demanded that Iran suspend uranium enrichment by 31 Aug 2006, or face economic sanctions.
• Resolution 1737 (Dec 2006) imposed limited sanctions for failure to halt the enrichment program. The resolution related to total ban on all supplies to Iran related to nuclear technology.
• Resolution 1747 (Mar 2007) prevents all parties to deal with Iranian State Bank Sepah and high-ranking officials engaged in the nuclear program.

In order to put psychological pressure on Iran the US dispatched the largest flotilla of war vessels to the Persian Gulf on May 23, 2007. Two aircraft carriers USS Nimitz and USS Stennis with 17,000 marines have been running war games, 30 km off the territorial waters of Iran. The US has made it clear time and again that it has "contingency plans" (euphemism for war) about Iran, but then it wants a diplomatic solution to the issue.

There are some stark similarities in the American allegations against Iran now, to those that Washington had made against Saddam Hussein just before the invasion of Iraq. Clearly, the two obvious objectives remain unchanged -- access to the oil fields of the Middle East and security of Israel. One should recall that President Ahmedinejad had called for obliteration of Israel from the face of the earth. (At least that was the translation rendered by the Western press).

The duplicity of the Western powers becomes more than evident when one compares certain parallels. The US is engaged in negotiations with India -- known as strategic partner -- to develop India's civilian nuclear capability. But when Iran says that it too shall use the enriched uranium for generating energy, it is rejected by the US.

When North Korea withdrew from the NPT and later exploded two nuclear devices in October 2006, the US did not send any flotilla to the Sea of Japan. It patiently went through the six-party talks and arrived at a negotiated settlement with N. Korea. Military maneuvering near the Chinese borders to frighten N. Korea was not found very attractive by George Bush.

President Bush on May 25 again reiterated that US, with its allies, shall try to impose tougher sanction now and isolate Iran. The difficulty is that Russia and China think that sanctions will not deter Iran from its goals. Negotiations would be the right approach they say. The new conservative president of France Nicolas Sarkozy has already teamed up with George Bush on this issue. Britain's Blair has been on the US bandwagon from the very beginning.

The dangerous "Shia Crescent" spreads from South Lebanon (Hezbollah), through southern Syria, South Iraq's Basra region and into Iran. Was it not the Shia campaign that drove the American forces out of Lebanon in 1983-84. The Israeli campaign in Lebanon against Hezbollah in summer 2006 was a disaster.

US have accused Iran of abetting a proxy war in Iraq. Thus a "nuclear Iran" will be too dangerous for American interests in the region. While the US wants to punish Iran for it nuclear program, it needs Iran to help it evolve an exit strategy from Iraq and has invited it to talks on Iraq on May 28 in Baghdad. It is a Catch-22 situation for Washington.

Iran's foreign policy is marked by expediency and not by principles. It quietly collaborated with Washington to get rid of Saddam of Iraq and Mollah Omar of Afghanistan. It did not hesitate to buy arms from Israel and the US (Iran-Contra affair) during the Iraq-Iran war (1980-1988). But when it came to the nuclear issue, Iran had hardened its position.

President Ahmedinejad has vowed not to step back from its ongoing nuclear program. Iran is surrounded by NWS -- Israel, Russia, Pakistan, India, China, and several US bases in the Persian Gulf. It will not be surprising that Iran eventually develops a nuclear weapon.

The West will do well not to look for a casus belli and go for adventurism over Iran. The world will be relieved if this confrontation is resolved through negotiations, keeping in mind the legitimate interest of all the parties.

Mahmood Hasan is a former Ambassador and Secretary.